Epidemiology Modelling Unit

Head

Dr Chris Stevenson PhD

Tel +61 (0)3 9903 0049 Fax +61 (0)3 9903 0556 E-mail christopher.stevenson@med.monash.edu.au

The Epidemiology Modelling Unit was formed in February 2008 and will be funded for five years on an NHMRC Health Services Grant, Better targeting of preventive services using epidemiological modelling. The Unit's research will be analysis of existing trends and data patterns in burdens of disease, in order to predict likely needs for health care resources and effectiveness of different approaches to disease prevention. Such cost benefit analysis provides a foundation for developing costed options for policy makers, and also for decision-making frameworks for general practitioners and their patients about lifestyle changes for improved health outcomes.

Research Project Aims

The overall aim of the project is to develop asystem of epidemiological models to relate chronic disease risk factors to disease onset and its subsequent course and impact. The research is intended to inform:

(1) patient understanding of the relationship between modifiable risk factors and disease outcome;

(2) clinical practice, and in particular GPs' understanding of this relationship and their ability to use this understanding in helping their patients to modify their lifestyles and associated risk factors; and

(3) health policy development, both by assisting health policy makers to devise optimal health promotion and disease prevention strategies and by providing lobby and advocate groups and interested individuals with relevant, evidence based information on risk factors and disease outcomes.

(1) a web-based calculator which allows members of the general public to access their own risk of disease; and

(2)  specific modelling to support policy development.